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Prediction for CME (2024-09-13T10:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-09-13T10:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33395/-1
CME Note: Faint CME with a clear front directed towards the northwest in SOHO and north in STEREO A COR2, indicating its directedness towards STEREO A and a bit north. Likely source is is flaring south of AR 3814 (N12W33) around 2024-09-13T08:24Z, accompanied by a medium-sized dimming and minor post-eruptive arcades. This eruption is right at the disk center in STEREO A EUV imagery. In EUVI A 304 we also see a small ejecta directed southwards. The arrival is characterized by small magnetic field increases seen at ACE/DSCOVR between 2024-09-16T04:00Z and 10:00Z and very smooth, stabilizing magnetic field components or evidence for a flux rope occurring near 16:00Z. There also seem to be very minor density and temperature enhancements as well, though these signatures are not as clear. Around 2024-09-16T05:00Z, L1 may passes over one of the flanks, where the flank shock is still visible in simulations, and later, around 2024-09-16T18:00Z, the CME passes over one of the legs of the CME structure.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-09-16T04:54Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.33

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-09-15T23:41Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-09-13 15:00
 - Time at C2: 2024-09-13 10:12
 - Radial speed: 768.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 29 deg
 - Eruption location: N28W29
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 636.40 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-09-15 23:41 (i.e. predicted transit time: 61.48 hours)
Lead Time: 51.70 hour(s)
Difference: 5.22 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2024-09-14T01:12Z
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